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Tandemkross

Author Topic: 2019 Novel Coronavirus Outbreak : Wuhan Flu : 2019-nCov : COVID-19 : SARS-CoV-2  (Read 1242 times)

Offline TheHarleyB

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Who else is following the outbreak/pandemic of the Chinese Coronavirus?

What is known is that it seems to have started in Wuhan in Hubei province in china possibly around a wet market there where people buy various kinds of animals for human consumption. The best official guess is that it's a bat disease that mutated to infect humans but there are some theories that it got out of China's only top level bio research lab that happens to be located in Wuhan.

It has now spread all over the world with confirmed cases in mainland China, The United States, Canada, Australia, Germnay, France, UAE, India, Italy, Russia, UK, Philippines, Singapore, Thailand, Hong Kong, Japan, South Korea, Taiwan, Malaysia, Vietnam, Macau, and Nepal.

The official numbers are around 32,000 confirmed cases and 640 deaths as of 2/7/2020 but the numbers are likely bogus and way low due to the Chinese outright lying and the lack of available testing equipment.

Cities are locked down all over China with hundreds of millions in lockdown/quarantine, many countries have banned travel/travellers to and from China and there are now several cruise ships that are blocked from docking anywhere so they are quarantined with either confirmed or suspected cases on board.

CDC info and links about Wuhan flu. https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/about/index.html

CDC summary. https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/summary.html

John Hopkins data with map of global cases. https://gisanddata.maps.arcgis.com/apps/opsdashboard/index.html#/bda7594740fd40299423467b48e9ecf6

World Health Organization page. https://www.who.int/emergencies/diseases/novel-coronavirus-2019



« Last Edit: March 04, 2020, 09:57:46 AM by TheHarleyB »

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Offline TheHarleyB

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Re: Wuhan Flu Chinese 2019-nCov Novel Corona Outbreak -
« Reply #1 on: February 07, 2020, 11:30:36 AM »
If you aren't already prepared for something like this, it's a good time (or past time) to start thinking about it. If you already have preps, it's at least a good reminder to check them.

It's pretty gnarly in China already. Check out social media for some crazy posts and videos coming from there. People there are made to stay home, only one person per household allowed to go out every 2 days for supplies or healthcare. If it turns into that kind of situation in other places, it could get pretty bad.

"Prevention is the best cure."  Avoid big crowds. Wash hands frequently. Use hand sanitizer. Don't touch your face. Common sense. Good preps would be supplies to bug in for several weeks to avoid people with the bug. Food and water. Heat if you're in a cold environment in the winter.



Offline GL_SHOT

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Re: Wuhan Flu Chinese 2019-nCov Novel Corona Outbreak -
« Reply #2 on: February 07, 2020, 12:14:20 PM »
Ugh - hopefully it wasn't floating around Vegas during SHOT Show. The regular SHOT Show crud is bad enough!

Offline GunLink

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Re: Wuhan Flu Chinese 2019-nCov Novel Corona Outbreak -
« Reply #3 on: February 07, 2020, 02:01:40 PM »
Fox News says there is a press conference with US health officials about the virus starting soon.


Trump virus task force: immediate risk to US public is low.

CDC has test kits available for select users. 191 national labs.

Candidate treatment in the works with private company.

Most cases involve those with direct ties to Hubei province. A number of person to person transmission cases for those who have not been to China.

Chinese doctor who sounded early alarm about virus in December and who Chinese government tried to silence has died of the virus.
« Last Edit: February 07, 2020, 02:19:15 PM by GunLink »

Offline hotshotSX7

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Re: Wuhan Flu Chinese 2019-nCov Novel Corona Outbreak -
« Reply #4 on: February 07, 2020, 04:19:13 PM »
I don't know. They say it's low risk. Most cases have been in China and all but a couple deaths have been in China. Sounds like they either got it handled or it's just not as bad as some people think. As my coworker pointed out, there's a lot more flu cases and a LOT more flu deaths every year and nobody freaks about that.

Offline TheHarleyB

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Re: Wuhan Flu Chinese 2019-nCov Novel Corona Outbreak -
« Reply #5 on: February 07, 2020, 07:38:19 PM »
Exactly. Nobody is freaking out about the flu. CDC estimates a LOT of people infected with flu last season with tens of thousands of US deaths from it. Yet it wasn't on the news every day, I don't think the president made a task force to address it, there weren't daily press conferences, cruise ships weren't denied ports and quarantined, countries didn't shut down travel, and entire cities weren't locked down over the flu. We don't know if it's better or worse than flu. The response is much different though.

Yes, it currently looks much worse there than it is here. But remember that this thing has been floating around over there since November/December and we just started hearing about it the last week of January. It was about two months in when the case numbers skyrocketed and they started shutting down cities.

As far as we know, it's only been in the US for a week or two. It could have possibly been here sooner, but who knows? The rest of the world could be as much as a couple months behind their timeline. There are, what, 12 cases in the US? At some point months ago, China only had 12 cases too.

The worrying part is that it takes up to two weeks before it becomes symptomatic after being infected and during some part of that two week period the asymptomatic carriers are infections and possibly passing it on. Plus, it's in the middle of regular flu season. If 2019-nCoV wasn't on any radars, how many cases (here or elsewhere) were just passed off as flu symptoms while it spread? How many people traveled from China or wherever else it was carrying it and passing it on? Now we're flying people in from hot zones and disembarking cruise ships and screening ("screening" not "testing") people before turning them loose. Screening likely means "have you been to china? do you feel OK? do you have a fever? Ok, carry on" Even though they know that it can be spread by those without symptoms.

https://www.cnbc.com/2020/02/05/epidemiologist-warns-lawmakers-us-cant-keep-coronavirus-out-of-our-border.html
Epidemiologist warns lawmakers: US can’t keep coronavirus ‘out of our border’
"U.S. travel restrictions implemented in recent days to keep a fast-moving virus that has crippled much of China from spreading across America won’t work, a top epidemiologist told U.S. lawmakers Wednesday.

“I have never seen instances where that has worked when we are talking about a virus at this scale,” epidemiologist Jennifer Nuzzo, a senior scholar at Johns Hopkins University’s Center for Health Security, testified before the House Foreign Affairs subcommittee. Respiratory viruses like the one that’s sickened more than 24,300 across the globe and killed at least 490 in China “just move quickly,” she said.

Offline TheHarleyB

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Re: Wuhan Flu Chinese 2019-nCov Novel Corona Outbreak -
« Reply #6 on: February 12, 2020, 08:17:45 AM »
Updates:
Virus can take up to 24 days to become symptomatic.
China changes reporting for “confirmed cases” to include POSITIVE tests ONLY if they are symptomatic.

Total cases 45,204
16,067 suspected
8,204 serious
4,740 recovered
Deaths 1,116
« Last Edit: February 12, 2020, 08:20:05 AM by TheHarleyB »

Offline masfonos

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Re: Wuhan Flu Chinese 2019-nCov Novel Corona Outbreak -
« Reply #7 on: February 13, 2020, 01:20:21 PM »
I went to a farm machinery show this week and saw the JCB guys. If I make it back out there and remember I’ll ask them about deliverables and what their production time might look like. That’s 20,000 man hours a week slashed and component shortages inbound.

https://www.theguardian.com/business/live/2020/feb/13/euro-low-recession-fears-coronavirus-growth-ec-business-live

Alibaba and JCB hit by coronavirus problems as oil demand slashed - as it happened

JCB is planning to cut working hours for around 4,000 employees from 39 hours to just 34 from next Monday. Overtime has also been suspended. Staff won’t take a pay cut, though - they’ll have to work the hours back later this year.

The problem is that a quarter of JCB’s suppliers in China are still closed, due to virus-related restrictions, so they can’t ship enough components to Britain.

I think this makes JCB the first major UK manufacturer to cut output because of Covid-19 -- airlines such as British Airways have already cut flights to China.

JCB chief operating officer Mark Turner explains:

“The disruption to the component supply chain in the UK comes at a time when demand for JCB products is very strong, so while this course of action is very unfortunate, it is absolutely necessary to protect the business and our skill base.

“Production in the UK has so far been unaffected by the situation in China. However, more than 25% of JCB’s suppliers in China remain closed and those that have reopened are working at reduced capacity and are struggling to make shipments.

“It is therefore clear that the inbound supply of certain components from Chinese partners will be disrupted in the coming weeks as they seek to replenish their stocks.

“This inevitably means we will not have the required amount of parts needed to build our forecast number of machines in the short-term.

“These measures will ensure that, while we will produce machines in lower than anticipated numbers, we will do so with the same number of employees, whose skills we will need to fulfil customers’ orders when the situation returns to normal.”

Offline DieselDude

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Re: Wuhan Flu Chinese 2019-nCov Novel Corona Outbreak -
« Reply #8 on: February 14, 2020, 10:14:07 AM »
Tip of the iceburg. Never heard of JCB. Ali Baba is big though. China is SHUT DOWN. Even if it isn't finished product ALOT of components come from there thanks to US manufacturers going there for cheap labour. This will hit us hard in a couple weeks or months once supplies run out and last for a while. Time to move manufacturing back in to the USA. But if regular products weren't bad enough, just wait for the medicine shortages because of this https://www.breitbart.com/asia/2020/02/13/coronavirus-outbreak-exposes-chinas-monopoly-on-u-s-drug-medical-supplies/

Offline LivingDeadGirl

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Re: Wuhan Flu Chinese 2019-nCov Novel Corona Outbreak -
« Reply #9 on: February 14, 2020, 06:37:02 PM »
I don't know. They say it's low risk. Most cases have been in China and all but a couple deaths have been in China. Sounds like they either got it handled or it's just not as bad as some people think. As my coworker pointed out, there's a lot more flu cases and a LOT more flu deaths every year and nobody freaks about that.


The bigger concern is whether it ends up like MERS.

Yes. There are more influenza cases every year and deaths and about 25% of the viruses that cause the common cold are coronaviruses. However, those viruses are human viruses. The issue with swine flue, avian flu, SARS and MERS (really any virus that makes a jump from animal host to human host) is that that virus isn’t meant to be there. So depending on the recombination event that happens the human immune response can be severe and lead to high mortality rate, like Ebola or MERS (so estimated have MERS as high as 60%).

The reason bird flu hasn’t been a huge problem despite the mortality rate is that we haven’t actually had human to human transmission.

What we’re seeing with this novel virus is that it is highly contagious, so human to human transmission. Which means it’s perfect to cause a pandemic before we even get into the mortality rate. As with most respiratory illnesses, the very young, very old and immune compromised are more susceptible. What we saw in 1918 influenza pandemic is that the most affected were people who aren’t usually severely affected by the virus. Until we start seeing the true mortality rate and who is susceptible, we don’t know what can happen especially since the incubation period is so long. That’s plenty of time for more mutations to occur within a host who might have also come into contact with another strain.


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Offline masfonos

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Re: Wuhan Flu Chinese 2019-nCov Novel Corona Outbreak -
« Reply #10 on: February 15, 2020, 11:21:07 PM »
The guy I talked to at JCB didn’t know much of anything. Didn’t know about any production cuts, delivery times, the virus, or anything. He said their small tractors are domestic (Savannah GA I think he said?) but thought the big stuff came from the UK where they just cut 20000 hours a week.

A guy I work out with works for an assembly division of a major manufacturer of semi trucks. He told me yesterday they just cut a shift and laid off 20%+ of their guys, some indefinitely. Knowing what his position works on, I asked him where they source components from and he said he thought a lot of it was from China. Didn’t seem to know much about the situation or industry over there being shut down.

Offline TheHarleyB

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Re: Wuhan Flu Chinese 2019-nCov Novel Corona Outbreak -
« Reply #11 on: March 04, 2020, 09:32:49 AM »
The news is starting to be wall to wall coverage of COVID-19 now and people are starting to wake up and panic buy items. Stock up on items that you will or may need. Shortages are already here and when the shit really hits the fan things could be very hard to find. Get hygiene supplies, medicines, food, etc. enough to last at least a couple weeks while it's still on the shelves. Not saying go crazy with prepping, just get extra of things that you will use anyway in case you can't go to the store or stores run out entirely.

These showed up outside of a Walgreens in my town mid-february. Maybe supplies to prepare for runs on masks, cleaning supplies, etc. Maybe drugs. Who knows? They've never had them there before.



Our grocery stores are now cleared out of ALL hand sanitizer and real bleach. There is still the concentrated/diluted/flavored/tinkered with bleach in some stores, but some places are completely out of it. Masks are nowhere to be found since all of the Chinese folks bought them all up to send back to China where the government confiscated them.



« Last Edit: March 04, 2020, 09:42:37 AM by TheHarleyB »

Offline TheHarleyB

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Re: Wuhan Flu Chinese 2019-nCov Novel Corona Outbreak -
« Reply #12 on: March 04, 2020, 09:51:53 AM »
Almost 100,000 confirmed cases now with Europe and Middle East blowing up. US cases keep going up too. Too little too late done to try to contain it.  Schools, universities, sporting events, businesses, etc. around the world being closed.

I also just read that there are two strains (-L and -S) with one being fairly mild and the other spreading easier and being harder on you, one being the original strain found and the other being a mutation.



Offline LivingDeadGirl

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Local Costco has implemented a 5 item limit on bottled water, disinfectants , sugar, and rice.


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Offline TheHarleyB

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Local Costco has implemented a 5 item limit on bottled water, disinfectants , sugar, and rice.



At least they have it in stock. A guy I work out with says Walmart has the same policy for bleach and sanitizer, not sure about the other stuff.

I can't go anywhere now without either getting into or overhearing conversations about it. It's on everyone's radar now.

« Last Edit: March 05, 2020, 10:11:08 PM by TheHarleyB »

Offline PorkyPascal

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Wow. 233 in US then and 245,000 now.

Offline TheHarleyB

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And that's just the confirmed cases and we're woefully lacking in testing. Up to 609,000 confirmed now. We'll peak, start flattening out, start coming down, open back up, and it will start spreading again. Round 2 is often worse than Round 1.

Wow. 233 in US then and 245,000 now.

Offline masfonos

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I've mostly been looking at the Johns Hopkins map and these sites for stats, but I haven't been watching it much lately. It was on my radar early January or so then I followed it closely from early February until a few weeks ago. Disaster fatigue wears on you, so I only look up stuff on it a couple times a week other than checking out the stats every day or two.

https://coronavirus.1point3acres.com/ has good current stats for US and Canada broken down by smaller areas. 708,841 confirmed US cases and 37,312 deaths as of right now.

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/ does a decent job with stats too.

A lot of people are saying that it's peaking or flattening now, but I think that's only in the big hot spots like New York. Everywhere will peak in waves but people are chomping at the bit to open the country back up. I think we'll see flare ups due to that and later peaks in the areas that open early "because it's no big deal there right now" like Florida that is reopening beaches. And that's all still lumped in under the first wave. Without a treatment or inoculation for it as soon as people start getting back together in groups it will start all over again for (possibly worse) wave 2, 3, etc.  Maybe it will end up being flu like numbers in the end, but I don't think it looks like it will.

I know one thing, the response sure is a great step toward socialism. I've heard lots of people getting real comfortable sitting at home collecting "expanded" unemployment or pay to not work ("I make more sitting at home not working that I do going to work, why would I work?" attitude), stimulus checks, etc. A lot of people will probably find out that they're expendable to their employers or can at least work from home only part time. Who knows when the economy will rebound, especially if November goes bad.